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Onafhankelijke hardware-schaarste · dataset 705 events Peildatum 6 oktober 2026 · gebouwd 28 oktober 2026
NVDA217,94+0,90%AMD560,26+5,45%INTC93,74+3,61%MU928,76+2,77%000660.KS1.451.000,00+8,20%WDC380,88+6,95%STX667,85+3,67%TSM436,87+2,95%ASML1.635,57+2,94%AMAT395,93+2,15%LRCX240,85+1,41%
Producten — ankerdataset705 events · peil 2026-10-06

Producten

14 ankerproducten van de hardwarecrisis. Per product: trendlijn uit de tijdseries (alleen waar ≥2 datapunnen), events en leverancierssignalen uit 705 events.

01

NVIDIA B200 GPU

25 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: 20 MW -> 84 MW planned with GB300 NVL72 liquid-cooled racks; on-site fuel cells bypass incremental utility interconnect, ABF substrate, ASML EUV, Advanced packaging, Board design, CoWoS capacity, CoWoS packaging, Copper interconnect

02

GB300 / DGX Station

11 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: 20 MW -> 84 MW planned with GB300 NVL72 liquid-cooled racks; on-site fuel cells bypass incremental utility interconnect, 9-CSP CapEx: $957B 2026 (+106%) → >$1.5T 2027 (+60%, revised up from 50%), 9-CSP capex: $957B 2026 (+106%) -> >$1.5T 2027 (+60%); AI server shipments +32.2% 2026, +~36% 2027, ASML EUV, Advanced packaging, CoWoS packaging, Dedicated Ethernet training back-end spanning buildings on a ~1M-GPU, gigawatt campus — direct pull on 800G/1.6T optics and switch ports, Direct demand-side datapoint for nearline HDD: the L4 'source of truth' for a ~1M-GPU cluster is durable HDD-backed BLOB/Tectonic storage, regionally colocated with GPUs

03

HBM3e geheugen

40 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: 1-gamma process would match or exceed Samsung/SK Hynix 1X-class nodes for HBM4E performance targets, 71% market share = extreme concentration risk. If Hanmi experiences production disruption (fire, labor dispute, export restriction), HBM4 assembly at all three memory vendors is constrained simultaneously., ABF substrate, AI demand growth, ARM ecosystem maturity, Advanced packaging, Both HBM3E suppliers raising prices simultaneously indicates collective capacity constraint rather than competitive undercutting, CoWoS capacity

04

HBM4 geheugen

54 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: 1-gamma process would match or exceed Samsung/SK Hynix 1X-class nodes for HBM4E performance targets, 1.8 MW/CDU in-row cooling at N+1; NVL72 rack = 20.7 TB HBM4; scalable-unit blueprint to GW scale, 70% allocation = structural moat for SK Hynix; base die yield respin a known risk factor, 71% market share = extreme concentration risk. If Hanmi experiences production disruption (fire, labor dispute, export restriction), HBM4 assembly at all three memory vendors is constrained simultaneously., 8-Hi HBM4 shift raises the number of Rubin Ultra GPUs supportable per unit of HBM bit output from mid-2027, >1M Maia 300 accelerators planned for 2027 at 96 chips/~167 kW per rack — incremental liquid-cooled rack demand outside the NVIDIA ecosystem, AATT2 HBM assembly/test capacity online Oct 2026; 100% of planned 2027 output committed, AMD; Microsoft Azure; HBM4 supply for MI455X

05

CoWoS advanced packaging

35 events in dataset

TSMC CoWoS capacity by end-2026 (two-source spread, flagged discrepancy)88 → 127,5 wafers/month
901001101202026-12-012026-12-01
TSMC CoWoS die size in reticles3,3 → 5,5 reticles
452026-09-10

Signalen: $1.3T hyperscaler capex in 2027 implies continued GPU procurement at or above current pace — supports long-term CoWoS/HBM demand projections., $161.2B aggregate rent under Broadcom master equipment leases + additional TPU compute procurement committed for 2028-2031 delivery (S-1), 5.5x-reticle CoWoS in HVM at 98–99% yield; 14x target 2029, 6 GW cumulative Anthropic TPU deployment planned through 2027, ABF substrate, AI GPU (Blackwell/Rubin), server-CPU and custom-ASIC packaging demand; test-time growth consuming assembly/test capacity; upstream equipment delivery (6-8 months), Advanced packaging, Advanced packaging equipment

06

ABF-substraat

9 events in dataset

Ibiden ABF substrate size (largest side)90 → 130 mm
901001101201302026-09-10

Signalen: ABF substrate, CoWoS packaging, Grid power, HBM3e memory, Ibiden, Nippon Steel, Planning horizon extended to 3–5 years across fab + packaging + substrates, Samsung Electro-Mechanics + LG Innotek AI substrate utilization near 90% (H1 2026). Ibiden constrains Nvidia shipment volumes; Ajinomoto constrains Ibiden throughput.

07

DDR5 RDIMM

27 events in dataset

Conventional DRAM contract price change, quarter-on-quarter94 → 12,5 %
2550752026-01-012026-10-01
Samsung DRAM ASP change, quarter-on-quarter90 → 20 %
204060802026-01-012026-07-01
DDR5 chip-level price6,8 → 27,2 USD
10202025-09-012025-12-01
Server DRAM price index (ServnetUK, 2025-Q3=100)100 → 527 index
2004002025-07-012026-07-01

Signalen: 1.8 MW/CDU in-row cooling at N+1; NVL72 rack = 20.7 TB HBM4; scalable-unit blueprint to GW scale, 23% of DRAM wafers now dedicated to HBM (up from 8% in 2024); no major new DRAM fab capacity before 2028, 2Q26 DRAM revenue share table: Samsung 39.4 / SK hynix 24.9 / Micron 23.3 / CXMT 9.5 (%), >1M Maia 300 accelerators planned for 2027 at 96 chips/~167 kW per rack — incremental liquid-cooled rack demand outside the NVIDIA ecosystem, >50% more gross die per wafer at 8Gb-equivalent vs G4; LPDDR5X 24Gb products (50% more data vs prior gen), Advanced packaging, CXMT expanding toward reported ~300K wafers/month DRAM capacity per same wave of coverage, DRAM wafer capacity

08

eSSD (enterprise SSD)

21 events in dataset

NAND contract price change, quarter-on-quarter57,5 → 12,5 %
2040602026-01-012026-07-01
2TB NVMe street price120 → 300 USD
1502002503002024-06-012026-06-24
8GB eMMC price1,5 → 20 USD
51015202025-07-012026-02-17

Signalen: 256TB in a single E3.S slot (QLC), plus PCIe Gen6 SSD shown, 321-layer NAND to ~50% of domestic capacity by end-2026; Yongin P1 cleanroom early 2027 adds new capacity; H1 2026 cumulative revenue >100T won for first time, Addresses the controller CPU scaling wall for PCIe Gen6+ high-capacity eSSDs (incl. 245TB-class QLC drives), IPO capital + Xtacking-into-DRAM signals sustained NAND capex runway for China supply, NAND flash diverted to HBM production; HDD manufacturers at full capacity. Both storage tiers face supply constraints simultaneously from different root causes., SK hynix NAND allocation through end-2026; Micron >75% of FY27 output committed; SanDisk ~30% below peak wafer capacity, Server DRAM expected to remain undersupplied in 4Q26; PC DRAM supply could decline in 2027, Supplier inventories at historic lows; production failing to keep pace with orders (per TrendForce-cited commentary)

09

Nearline HDD

28 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: +100% Toshiba HDD capacity by FY2027 on ~$380M capex (Philippines), 195 EB/quarter nearline to data centers (+43% YoY); nearline = 89.4% of shipped capacity, 209 EB nearline shipped in single quarter (Q2 FY2026). Hyper-concentration on cloud (>89% revenue) creates hyperscaler dependency risk but secures committed volumes., 248 EB shipped, +21.6% Y/Y; 40TB ePMR at 50% of nearline by FQ3 FY27; 44TB HAMR volume shipments CY1H 2027, 40TB ePMR volume at customer. 44TB HAMR H1 CY27 on track. LTA negotiations covering 2029 to 2031 in active progress. Exabyte growth greater than 25% guided forward., All 2026 nearline capacity allocated. NVMe $/TB ratio 16x from 6x YoY. Consumer HDD approximately 5% of WD output. HDD price rise 35-46% YoY., Both Seagate and WD report utilization at or near full capacity across all product lines. China PC market also driving demand rebound after years of SSD substitution., Both WD CEO Irving Tan Feb 2026: pretty much sold out for calendar 2026 and Seagate CEO Dave Mosley confirmed identical capacity allocation position. Consumer HDD represents approximately 5% of WD output with rest absorbed by hyperscale CSPs.

10

800G / 1.6T transceivers

61 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: $115B by 2027 implies ~$57B compound growth from FY2025 baseline; networking and interconnect represent an increasing share as GPU-count-per-cluster grows non-linearly, $16.7B AI semiconductor revenue in single quarter = ~$67B annualized rate; bandwidth of demand far exceeds historical networking TAM, $600M+ optical revenue target for FY2027 across AEC, DSP, and optical engine product lines; suggests optical segment alone approaching $300M+ annually, 12.8 Tb/s per OSFP-sized module; 4x front-panel density vs 200G/lane pluggables, 16-lane 224G PAM4 retimer + 3nm 1.6T AEC DSP extend 200G/lane scale-up silicon, 1RU Davisson CPO 102.4T box previewed for Q1 2027 production — earliest merchant CPO switch timeline observed, 300mm InP-on-SiPh platform would multiply laser/PIC die-per-wafer vs 150mm InP mainstream — unconfirmed volume, 300mm InP-on-silicon platform could raise InP laser/PIC wafer output vs industry-standard 150mm and below

11

Transformatoren

33 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: $1.84B+ announced across 7 US plants in 8 weeks; earliest production 2028 (Southwire) / 2029 (Hitachi Gallman), $340M transformer production expansion (Jonesville SC), in addition to Eaton's September $242M Arkansas enclosure plant, $800M H1 2026 US transformer orders, +1.1 GW near-term firm capacity from existing fleet; UPRISE program now ~4.7 GW identified vs 5-GW target, +14 GW new demand expected online through 2030; electric capex $51.5B of $70.7B plan, 40+ substation facilities in one utility group's 2026 rebuild slate — replacement-market demand layered on the AI-driven new-build queue, ABB electrification Americas DC orders +117% comparable y/y (Utility Dive/ABB release), Backlog $8.49B = ~3.7x annualized Q2 revenue; H1 orders $3.237B vs raised FY target $5.185B

12

Grid-interconnect

147 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: $1.5B annual liquid cooling revenue base from Boyd Thermal adds ~5K employees across NA/EU/Asia; Eaton's combined power + cooling scale creates #2 position after Vertiv, $1.84B+ announced across 7 US plants in 8 weeks; earliest production 2028 (Southwire) / 2029 (Hitachi Gallman), $115B by 2027 implies ~$57B compound growth from FY2025 baseline; networking and interconnect represent an increasing share as GPU-count-per-cluster grows non-linearly, $2.6B total potential consideration signals how expensive 'time to power' has become; complements Eaton↔Siemens Energy modular onsite-power partnership, $200M combined announced DOE uplift awards in October 2026 (reconductoring/DLR + AK line), $600M+ optical revenue target for FY2027 across AEC, DSP, and optical engine product lines; suggests optical segment alone approaching $300M+ annually, $720B Goldman Sachs grid-upgrade estimate; 200 GW global data center capacity by 2030 doubles current ~100 GW, +1,070 MW contracted distributed capacity; PJM DR revenue $523.5M 2025 (+240% YoY)

13

CDU / vloeibare koeling

46 events in dataset

Nog onvoldoende datapunten voor een trendlijn (serie heeft minder dan 2 punten). Het signaal staat hieronder in de events.

Signalen: $1.5B annual liquid cooling revenue base from Boyd Thermal adds ~5K employees across NA/EU/Asia; Eaton's combined power + cooling scale creates #2 position after Vertiv, +150% modular hydronic/electric plant production capacity, Phoenix facility 17,750 m2, 1.8 MW/CDU in-row cooling at N+1; NVL72 rack = 20.7 TB HBM4; scalable-unit blueprint to GW scale, 100% liquid-cooled reference architecture shifts all new Rubin builds to DLC; Motivair (Schneider) cited as a long-standing design partner on the roadmap, 144 GPU die assemblies per rack + 36 CPU + full liquid cooling = one of the most complex manufactured systems ever produced at scale. Initial deployment limited by cooling infrastructure readiness at customer sites., 2.3 MW single-CDU class supports multi-megawatt AI halls in a small footprint — reduces CDU count and floor space, a deployment-speed lever for operators, 2.3 MW single-unit liquid-to-liquid CDU capacity point now qualified for DSX AI-factory reference designs, 20 MW -> 84 MW planned with GB300 NVL72 liquid-cooled racks; on-site fuel cells bypass incremental utility interconnect

14

Server CPU / OEM

119 events in dataset

SEMI global semiconductor equipment billings, quarterly36,5 → 40,5 USD billion
373839402026-03-312026-06-30

Signalen: $1.2B named rack order; >$3B FY26 AI-networking orders guided; Helios ramp starts FY27, $3.45B equity raise + FY26 outlook raise to $21.0B revenue: equity-funded AI-rack build capacity continues, $54B AI server backlog vs ~$8.5B/quarter run-rate implies >6 quarters of visibility for Lenovo's server lines, $942M H2-26 capex + NT$15B converts + $1.5B loan = multi-billion USD committed expansion pipeline, $95B AI server backlog signals multi-year delivery pipeline; Dell entering Q3 FY2027 with record backlog, suggesting capacity utilization at or near maximum, $95B backlog + $192B guided revenue implies Dell is scaling production to fill ~$74B AI server revenue run-rate; COO warned investors of "unprecedented" memory shortage affecting cost basis, $95B backlog = 1.28x the raised $74B annual AI-server sales forecast — over a year of forward demand visibility, +1.1 GW near-term firm capacity from existing fleet; UPRISE program now ~4.7 GW identified vs 5-GW target